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On August 8, 2019

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Real Estate August 2019 Report

Sales & Values by City, Price Segment & Lot Size; Market Seasonality; Luxury Home Sales; Market Dynamics by City; Foreign Homebuyers.

The May Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released in late July for the 5-county SF metro area. This chart illustrates the difference in appreciation rates between the Bay Area (higher price markets) and the entire country. Case-Shiller does not use median sales prices but its own algorithm to calculate appreciation. January 2000 home price = 100; 250 = a home price 150% above that of Jan. 2000.

Number of Sales & Median Sales Prices

Needless to say, there are many factors behind home sales and values in different communities. Home size is one of them, and median sales prices are not apples to apples comparisons: For example, in the small community of Diablo, the median home square footage is over 4000, while in Walnut Creek, it is under 2100 square feet. Lot size also plays a big role in our markets, which is illustrated a little further down in this report.

Number of Listings & Median ASKING Prices

If the median ASKING price (below) in a community is well above the median SALES price (above), it is usually indicative of some disconnect between seller and buyer expectations regarding fair market value, and/or the supply of higher-priced listings simply outweighs demand for such homes in that city.

Sales by Price Segment

Sales, Prices & Home Sizes by Lot Size

In San Francisco, houses selling for $8 million and houses selling for $800,000 can both be found on lots under 1/8 of an acre. In our market (and also in the wine country), lot size is a major factor in home size and price.

Market Seasonality

Listings and sales ebb and flow dramatically by season. In Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, the peak of activity – as measured by the number of listings going into contract – typically occurs in late spring. The relatively short autumn market – Labor Day to early November – is the last major selling season of the year before activity plunges in mid-November for the winter holiday period.

Luxury Home Sales

Market Statistics & Indicators by City

A few things should be kept in mind regarding the next 3 charts: Firstly, in or within communities of similar quality, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. As an example, the median size of a home in Lafayette is about 28% smaller than in Alamo. Secondly, it is not unusual for higher price markets to have softer buyer-demand dynamics than more affordable areas, though this is not always the case. And thirdly, Q2 is commonly the strongest market of the year, and its statistics reflect that heat.

Foreign National Home Buying Tumbles

According to a new report by the National Association of Realtors – based on a survey of its members – the purchase of U.S. homes by foreign nationals plunged in the 12 months through March 2019. California, and the Bay Area in particular, have been top destinations for international homebuyers in recent years.

Stock Market Hits New High

The last 12 months have been an extremely dramatic time for financial markets as illustrated below. The confidence or fear generated by its swings has been a considerable factor in real estate markets. A parallel dynamic has occurred with the swings in interest rates.

Market Indicators by Price Segment

In recent years, within counties around the Bay Area, the heat of buyer demand has often been as strongly correlated with price segment as by the location of the home in a specific city or town.

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