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On September 8, 2020

San Francisco Real Estate – A Complex Market September 2020

Despite the terrible fires, SF had a very active month in listings going into contract in August, hitting a high point for the year and matching the high points of recent years. Surprisingly, the fires did not significantly impact the number of deals being made in most Bay Area counties during the last 2 weeks of the month – the exceptions being Santa Cruz, Sonoma, Monterey and Napa Counties, which saw declines of 13% to 33%.

The number of active listings on the SF market has risen dramatically over the last few months, outpacing the increase in listings going into contract. However, there are significant differences between the house and condo markets, which are discussed later in the report.

With the increase in inventory has come a big jump in the number of listings reducing asking price. In some market segments, sellers are now competing for buyers, instead of buyers competing for listings.

The next two charts illustrate how the house and condo markets have diverged since the pandemic hit. The condo market is much weaker, comparing demand to supply. However, within the condo market, different neighborhoods are seeing varying dynamics, and hundreds of condos are still selling each month. More detail follows later in the report.

Regarding the next chart, the lower the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. Much of the SF house market (blue columns) remains firmly in “seller’s market” territory, but the condo market’s supply (red columns) is outpacing buyer demand, especially in the higher price segments.

Below is a comparison of median house sales prices, sizes and dollar per square foot values around the Bay Area this past summer.

A review of year-over-year changes in the number of luxury home sales around the Bay Area this past summer. Some other counties have seen astounding increases. SF luxury house sales increased by a more modest percentage; SF luxury condo sales declined year over year.

The following 3 charts illustrate aspects of the SF HOUSE market: Median house sales price trends by bedroom count; sales volumes and median sales prices by Realtor district; and the number of active house listings by Realtor district with an analysis of months supply of inventory.

The following 3 charts illustrate aspects of the SF CONDO & CO-OP market: Median sales price trends by bedroom count; sales volumes and median sales prices by Realtor district; and the number of active listings by Realtor district with an analysis of months supply of inventory.

In last month’s report, we looked at era of construction for the city’s houses. The chart below does the same for the SF condo, co-op and TIC market.

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