On April 12, 2018

Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Report

Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns regarding recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel strong markets throughout the Tri-Valley area.

In Q1 2018, the Tri-Valley median house sales price of $939,500 was 7.3% above the Q1 2017 price of $875,000, and the tiniest bit above the previous peak reached in Q2 2017 ($937,000). Prices usually increase from Q1 to Q2 as the spring selling season really gets going, so it will be interesting to see what happens next in our market.

Median House Prices by Year
since 1996

Home Values by City

Sales Reported to MLS, 10/1/17 – 4/10/18

Below is a glance at recent house median prices and average dollar per square foot values broken out for Tri-Valley and selected Diablo Valley cities, for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so – basically since autumn sales began to close in early October.

Median House Sales Prices

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Market Dynamics

Sales Price to List Price Percentage

Higher percentages of sales price over list price and lower days-on-market figures signify more heated buyer competition for new listings coming on market. By both these metrics, 2018 has gotten off to a stronger start than in recent years.

Average Days on Market

The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends

Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing in droves, that more people are leaving than arriving, that Silicon Valley is over, and this may spell disaster for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad – but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years – which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams – more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.

Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.

Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth

The San Francisco Bay Area population continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years.

The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down.

Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.

Our report on the ups and downs in the market over recent decades: SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

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